{ "generated_at": "2026-05-10", "slug": "zm-monterrey", "city": "ZM Monterrey", "state": "Nuevo León", "centroid": { "lat": 25.686243105, "lng": -100.33089066, "store_count": 46 }, "products": { "pisos": { "slug": "zm-monterrey", "city": "ZM Monterrey", "state": "Nuevo León", "product": "pisos", "score": 58, "verdict": "ATRACTIVA", "rank_nat": 6, "rank_state": 1, "tam_mdp": 850, "som_mdp": 14.92, "gtm": "distribuidor_exclusivo", "invest_min_k": 2000, "invest_max_k": 4000, "payback_m": 19, "top_comp": "Construrama", "top_comp_pts": 95, "cesa_pts": 8, "population": 3690496, "hogares": 1017511, "nse_w": 17.18, "cesa_pts_breakdown": { "propios": 0, "distribuidores": 8, "source": "cesantoni-true-presence-by-plaza.json" }, "tam_total_mdp": 1404, "tam_total_corrected_mdp": 850, "tam_mdp_note": "tam_total_corrected_mdp uses ÷1.2 factor — middle of Mordor benchmark range. Original tam_mdp preserved.", "top_competitors_array": [ { "name": "Independientes", "store_count": 43, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" }, { "name": "Interceramic", "store_count": 3, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" } ], "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024": 0, "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024": 0, "infonavit_creditos_2024": 58713, "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024": 27271679044.95, "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024": 24460, "fovissste_creditos_2024_state": 754, "housing_finance_match_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium": 25, "sam_serviceable_mdp": 340, "som_target_mdp": 15, "sam_assumption": "Semilujo+Lujo segments per Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json. NSE A/B/C+ households: ZM=25%, standalone=15%. Cesantoni price range $350-650/m² (v1 verified Jan 2026, may be stale).", "sam_cost_segments_match": "Monterrey", "conavi_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "infonavit_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy": [ { "name": "Construrama", "store_count": 4, "source": "CEMEX red distribuidor 2024" }, { "name": "Interceramic", "store_count": 1, "source": "Grupo Lamosa reporte anual 2024" } ], "top_competitors_source": "DENUE 467112 (2026-05-03)", "aggregation_caveat": "INFONAVIT 16/18, CONAVI 0/18, population 7/18 INEGI members have source data", "population_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_members_with_source_incomplete", "tam_mxn": 850000000, "sam_mxn": 340000000, "sam_pct": 40, "som_mxn": 14920000, "som_pct": 4.39, "cesantoni_propias": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores": 8, "revenue_target_annual_mxn": 2288696, "revenue_target_monthly_mxn": 190725, "quadrant": "PRIORIDAD_2", "distribuidores_exterior_count": 18, "cesantoni_match_method": "excel_oficial_apr20", "cesantoni_presence_source": "none", "cost_segments": { "interes_social": { "nacional": 9591, "local": 10358 }, "medio": { "nacional": 13914, "local": 15027 }, "semilujo": { "nacional": 19978, "local": 21576 }, "lujo": { "nacional": 27588, "local": 29795 }, "source": "Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json (2026-03-22)", "unit": "MXN per m² of full vivienda construction (NOT just floor)" }, "cost_segments_plaza_matched": "Monterrey", "cesantoni_segment_fit": { "verdict": "fits_partial", "cesantoni_range_mxn_per_m2": [ 350, 650 ], "semi_lujo_floor_band_mxn_per_m2": [ 647.28, 1489.75 ], "cesa_overlap": [ 647.28, 650 ], "method": "floor_cost = total_local * 3-5% range", "source": "data/cesantoni-fit-by-plaza.json (2026-05-05)" }, "state_code": "19", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas": 257, "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado": 1421, "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023": 2490984000, "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023": 1596851000, "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023": 104802000, "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn": 9692544.747081712, "inegi_pbt_status": "real", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi": 13.077, "inegi_retail_source_note": "INEGI SAIC Censos Económicos 2024 (ref year 2023, SCIAN 467112 retail flooring)", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_note": "Share del mercado retail flooring nacional (INEGI SCIAN 467112, 2023) — REAL revenue share, not inferred", "payback_m_display": "16 meses", "payback_m_realistic": 19, "payback_quality_flag": "viable", "cesantoni_propias_v1": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1": 7, "nse_w_state_avg": 15.68, "nse_w_method": "per_plaza_heuristic_v1", "nse_w_adjustment": { "base_state": 15.68, "plaza_adjustment": 1.5, "reason": "capital_estado+industrial_corridor", "rules_applied": [ { "delta": 0.5, "rule": "capital_estado" }, { "delta": 1, "rule": "industrial_corridor" } ] }, "industrial_corridor": { "is_industrial": true, "category": "heavy_industry", "key_employers": [ "Cemex", "FEMSA", "Vitro", "Tenaris", "KIA Pesquería" ], "implication": "Demanda significativa de adhesivos industriales y SPC para piso técnico" }, "verdict_consistency_score": 50, "verdict_review_needed": true, "verdict_review_reason": "verdicts span 3 categories — review per-product TAM/score", "_round_10_changes": "Added KIA Pesquería to key_employers (Pesquería is part of MTY ZM)", "_industrial_corridor_corrected_round_10": "2026-05-05T17:51:48.286175+00:00", "_reliability_audit": { "tier_1_hard_count": 20, "tier_2_derived_count": 17, "tier_3_heuristic_count": 9, "tier_4_approx_count": 4, "fields_by_tier": { "tier_1": [ "cesa_pts", "cesantoni_distribuidores", "cesantoni_propias", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024", "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024", "distribuidores_exterior_count", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state", "hogares", "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn", "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas", "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023", "infonavit_creditos_2024", "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024", "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024", "population", "rank_nat", "rank_state" ], "tier_2": [ "invest_max_k", "invest_min_k", "payback_m_realistic", "revenue_target_annual_mxn", "revenue_target_monthly_mxn", "sam_mxn", "sam_pct", "sam_serviceable_mdp", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium", "som_mdp", "som_mxn", "som_pct", "som_target_mdp", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi", "tam_mxn", "tam_total_corrected_mdp", "tam_total_mdp" ], "tier_3": [ "gtm", "nse_w", "nse_w_state_avg", "payback_m", "quadrant", "score", "top_comp_pts", "verdict", "verdict_consistency_score" ], "tier_4": [ "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1", "cesantoni_propias_v1", "tam_mdp", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy" ] }, "unknown_numeric_fields": [], "smell_test_flags": [], "smell_test_count": 0 }, "tam_total_corrected_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "tam_total_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "sam_serviceable_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "som_target_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_y1_capture", "nse_w_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_v1_per_plaza", "infonavit_creditos_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_infonavit", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_fovissste", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_conavi", "population_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "hogares_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "cesa_pts_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_propias_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_distribuidores_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "score_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_atractivo_facilidad", "verdict_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_bucket", "payback_m_realistic_reliability": "tier_2_derived_invest_div_som_margin", "tam_mdp_reliability": "tier_4_approx_v1_legacy", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_reliability": "tier_2_derived_inegi_share", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censos_economicos_2024", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "invest_min_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "invest_max_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "_auto_fixed": [ { "test": "T2", "ts": "2026-05-06T01:52:51.316Z", "reason": "clamp SAM/TAM,SOM/SAM (was sam=58.5% som=3.0%)" } ], "climate": { "avg_temp_c": 22, "annual_rainfall_mm": 600, "rainy_months": [ "may", "jun", "jul", "ago", "sep" ], "dry_months": [ "oct", "nov", "dic", "ene", "feb", "mar", "abr" ], "climate_type": "semi-seco (BS) y muy seco", "construction_note": "Lluvias dispersas verano; calor extremo (>40°C) limita obra mediodía", "source": "CONAGUA SMN normales 1991-2020 (via INEGI Cuéntame + SEMARNAT)" }, "enec_seasonality": { "peak_month": "2025-11 (nov)", "peak_index": 157.1, "trough_month": "2025-05 (may)", "trough_index": 74.7, "cv_pct": 25.34, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.18, "latest_month": "2026-02", "latest_index": 130.5, "source": "INEGI ENEC monthly bulletins (Nov 2024 - Feb 2026, indices 2018=100)" }, "_round_21_climate_seasonality_added": true, "price_benchmark": { "price_per_unit_mxn": 211, "price_per_m2_mxn": 211, "unit_label": "/m²", "source": "terra-v1 precomputed (city benchmark, retail public sources March 2026)", "source_city_v1": "Monterrey" }, "som_pct_old_T3": 4.4, "som_pct_reliability": "tier_1_derived_denue_density_corrected", "som_derivation_method": "(propias:0 + distrs_auth:10) / DENUE_467112(257) × 100, cap 10%", "som_pct_T1_correct_2026_05_10": 7.78, "tam_renovation_only_mdp": 763.1, "tam_renovation_only_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_renovation", "tam_renovation_only_mdp_note": "Solo demanda renovación recurrente: hogares × $750/hh/yr (Mordor mid-range, NO incluye new construction)", "tam_share_national_mdp": 1127.5, "tam_share_national_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_top_down", "tam_share_national_mdp_note": "Share proporcional hogares × $41B nacional consensus (industry 7 reports)", "tam_canonical_definition": "tam_total_corrected_mdp = TAM TOTAL mercado cerámicos (new construction + renovación). Para renovación solo ver tam_renovation_only_mdp; para share nacional ver tam_share_national_mdp.", "_top_comp_note": "Sin competidor dominante identificado en data set", "_cesa_pts_old": 2, "sam_mdp": 340, "_round_22_undercalibration_fix": { "previous_tam_mdp": 434.7, "top_down_anchor_mdp": 1127.5, "ratio": 2.59, "corrected_tam_mdp": 850, "weights": { "top_down": 0.6, "bottom_up": 0.4 }, "reason": "bottom-up under-calibrated (top_down/bottom_up ≥ 1.5); blended for realism", "applied_at": "2026-05-10" } }, "adhesivos": { "slug": "zm-monterrey", "city": "ZM Monterrey", "state": "Nuevo León", "product": "adhesivos", "score": 46, "verdict": "OPORTUNIDAD", "rank_nat": 7, "rank_state": 1, "tam_mdp": 81, "som_mdp": 1.18, "gtm": "distribuidor_exclusivo", "invest_min_k": 2000, "invest_max_k": 4000, "payback_m": 122, "top_comp": "Construrama", "top_comp_pts": 95, "cesa_pts": 8, "population": 3690496, "hogares": 1017511, "nse_w": 17.18, "cesa_pts_breakdown": { "propios": 0, "distribuidores": 8, "source": "cesantoni-true-presence-by-plaza.json" }, "tam_total_mdp": 262, "tam_total_corrected_mdp": 81, "tam_mdp_note": "tam_total_corrected_mdp uses ÷1.2 factor — middle of Mordor benchmark range. Original tam_mdp preserved.", "top_competitors_array": [ { "name": "Independientes", "store_count": 43, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" }, { "name": "Interceramic", "store_count": 3, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" } ], "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024": 0, "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024": 0, "infonavit_creditos_2024": 58713, "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024": 27271679044.95, "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024": 24460, "fovissste_creditos_2024_state": 754, "housing_finance_match_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium": 25, "sam_serviceable_mdp": 32.4, "som_target_mdp": 3, "sam_assumption": "Semilujo+Lujo segments per Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json. NSE A/B/C+ households: ZM=25%, standalone=15%. Cesantoni price range $350-650/m² (v1 verified Jan 2026, may be stale).", "sam_cost_segments_match": "Monterrey", "conavi_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "infonavit_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy": [ { "name": "Construrama", "store_count": 4, "source": "CEMEX red distribuidor" }, { "name": "Interceramic (Adhesivo Maestro)", "store_count": 1, "source": "Interceramic retail network" } ], "top_competitors_source": "DENUE 467112 (2026-05-03)", "verdict_overridden_from": "ATRACTIVA", "verdict_reason": "payback_too_long_105_months", "aggregation_caveat": "INFONAVIT 16/18, CONAVI 0/18, population 7/18 INEGI members have source data", "population_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_members_with_source_incomplete", "tam_mxn": 81000000, "sam_mxn": 32400000, "sam_pct": 40, "som_mxn": 1183410, "som_pct": 3.65, "cesantoni_propias": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores": 8, "revenue_target_annual_mxn": 355023, "revenue_target_monthly_mxn": 29585, "quadrant": "PRIORIDAD_2", "distribuidores_exterior_count": 18, "cesantoni_match_method": "excel_oficial_apr20", "cesantoni_presence_source": "none", "cost_segments": { "interes_social": { "nacional": 9591, "local": 10358 }, "medio": { "nacional": 13914, "local": 15027 }, "semilujo": { "nacional": 19978, "local": 21576 }, "lujo": { "nacional": 27588, "local": 29795 }, "source": "Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json (2026-03-22)", "unit": "MXN per m² of full vivienda construction (NOT just floor)" }, "cost_segments_plaza_matched": "Monterrey", "cesantoni_segment_fit": { "verdict": "fits_partial", "cesantoni_range_mxn_per_m2": [ 350, 650 ], "semi_lujo_floor_band_mxn_per_m2": [ 647.28, 1489.75 ], "cesa_overlap": [ 647.28, 650 ], "method": "floor_cost = total_local * 3-5% range", "source": "data/cesantoni-fit-by-plaza.json (2026-05-05)" }, "state_code": "19", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas": 257, "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado": 1421, "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023": 2490984000, "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023": 1596851000, "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023": 104802000, "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn": 9692544.747081712, "inegi_pbt_status": "real", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi": 13.077, "inegi_retail_source_note": "INEGI SAIC Censos Económicos 2024 (ref year 2023, SCIAN 467112 retail flooring)", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_note": "Share del mercado retail flooring nacional (INEGI SCIAN 467112, 2023) — REAL revenue share, not inferred", "payback_m_display": "No rentable (>5 años)", "payback_m_realistic": 122, "payback_quality_flag": "marginal", "cesantoni_propias_v1": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1": 7, "nse_w_state_avg": 15.68, "nse_w_method": "per_plaza_heuristic_v1", "nse_w_adjustment": { "base_state": 15.68, "plaza_adjustment": 1.5, "reason": "capital_estado+industrial_corridor", "rules_applied": [ { "delta": 0.5, "rule": "capital_estado" }, { "delta": 1, "rule": "industrial_corridor" } ] }, "industrial_corridor": { "is_industrial": true, "category": "heavy_industry", "key_employers": [ "Cemex", "FEMSA", "Vitro", "Tenaris", "KIA Pesquería" ], "implication": "Demanda significativa de adhesivos industriales y SPC para piso técnico" }, "verdict_consistency_score": 50, "verdict_review_needed": true, "verdict_review_reason": "verdicts span 3 categories — review per-product TAM/score", "_round_10_changes": "Added KIA Pesquería to key_employers (Pesquería is part of MTY ZM)", "_industrial_corridor_corrected_round_10": "2026-05-05T17:51:48.286175+00:00", "_reliability_audit": { "tier_1_hard_count": 20, "tier_2_derived_count": 17, "tier_3_heuristic_count": 9, "tier_4_approx_count": 4, "fields_by_tier": { "tier_1": [ "cesa_pts", "cesantoni_distribuidores", "cesantoni_propias", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024", "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024", "distribuidores_exterior_count", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state", "hogares", "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn", "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas", "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023", "infonavit_creditos_2024", "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024", "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024", "population", "rank_nat", "rank_state" ], "tier_2": [ "invest_max_k", "invest_min_k", "payback_m_realistic", "revenue_target_annual_mxn", "revenue_target_monthly_mxn", "sam_mxn", "sam_pct", "sam_serviceable_mdp", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium", "som_mdp", "som_mxn", "som_pct", "som_target_mdp", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi", "tam_mxn", "tam_total_corrected_mdp", "tam_total_mdp" ], "tier_3": [ "gtm", "nse_w", "nse_w_state_avg", "payback_m", "quadrant", "score", "top_comp_pts", "verdict", "verdict_consistency_score" ], "tier_4": [ "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1", "cesantoni_propias_v1", "tam_mdp", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy" ] }, "unknown_numeric_fields": [], "smell_test_flags": [], "smell_test_count": 0 }, "tam_total_corrected_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "tam_total_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "sam_serviceable_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "som_target_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_y1_capture", "nse_w_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_v1_per_plaza", "infonavit_creditos_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_infonavit", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_fovissste", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_conavi", "population_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "hogares_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "cesa_pts_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_propias_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_distribuidores_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "score_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_atractivo_facilidad", "verdict_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_bucket", "payback_m_realistic_reliability": "tier_2_derived_invest_div_som_margin", "tam_mdp_reliability": "tier_4_approx_v1_legacy", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_reliability": "tier_2_derived_inegi_share", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censos_economicos_2024", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "invest_min_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "invest_max_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "_auto_fixed": [ { "test": "T2", "ts": "2026-05-06T01:52:51.317Z", "reason": "clamp SAM/TAM,SOM/SAM (was sam=48.7% som=3.0%)" } ], "climate": { "avg_temp_c": 22, "annual_rainfall_mm": 600, "rainy_months": [ "may", "jun", "jul", "ago", "sep" ], "dry_months": [ "oct", "nov", "dic", "ene", "feb", "mar", "abr" ], "climate_type": "semi-seco (BS) y muy seco", "construction_note": "Lluvias dispersas verano; calor extremo (>40°C) limita obra mediodía", "source": "CONAGUA SMN normales 1991-2020 (via INEGI Cuéntame + SEMARNAT)" }, "enec_seasonality": { "peak_month": "2025-11 (nov)", "peak_index": 157.1, "trough_month": "2025-05 (may)", "trough_index": 74.7, "cv_pct": 25.34, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.18, "latest_month": "2026-02", "latest_index": 130.5, "source": "INEGI ENEC monthly bulletins (Nov 2024 - Feb 2026, indices 2018=100)" }, "_round_21_climate_seasonality_added": true, "price_benchmark": { "price_per_unit_mxn": 175, "price_per_m2_mxn": 175, "unit_label": "/saco 20kg", "source": "terra-v1 precomputed (city benchmark, retail public sources March 2026)", "source_city_v1": "Monterrey" }, "som_pct_old_T3": 3.7, "som_pct_reliability": "tier_1_derived_denue_density_corrected", "som_derivation_method": "(propias:0 + distrs_auth:10) / DENUE_467112(257) × 100, cap 10%", "som_pct_T1_correct_2026_05_10": 7.78, "tam_renovation_only_mdp": 763.1, "tam_renovation_only_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_renovation", "tam_renovation_only_mdp_note": "Solo demanda renovación recurrente: hogares × $750/hh/yr (Mordor mid-range, NO incluye new construction)", "tam_share_national_mdp": 1127.5, "tam_share_national_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_top_down", "tam_share_national_mdp_note": "Share proporcional hogares × $41B nacional consensus (industry 7 reports)", "tam_canonical_definition": "tam_total_corrected_mdp = TAM TOTAL mercado cerámicos (new construction + renovación). Para renovación solo ver tam_renovation_only_mdp; para share nacional ver tam_share_national_mdp.", "_top_comp_note": "Sin competidor dominante identificado en data set", "_cesa_pts_old": 2, "sam_mdp": 32.4 }, "sanitarios": { "slug": "zm-monterrey", "city": "ZM Monterrey", "state": "Nuevo León", "product": "sanitarios", "score": 49, "verdict": "OPORTUNIDAD", "rank_nat": 2, "rank_state": 1, "tam_mdp": 181.1, "som_mdp": 2.35, "gtm": "distribuidor_exclusivo", "invest_min_k": 2000, "invest_max_k": 4000, "payback_m": 61, "top_comp": "Helvex", "top_comp_pts": 95, "cesa_pts": 8, "population": 3690496, "hogares": 1017511, "nse_w": 17.18, "cesa_pts_breakdown": { "propios": 0, "distribuidores": 8, "source": "cesantoni-true-presence-by-plaza.json" }, "tam_total_mdp": 585, "tam_total_corrected_mdp": 181.1, "tam_mdp_note": "tam_total_corrected_mdp uses ÷1.2 factor — middle of Mordor benchmark range. Original tam_mdp preserved.", "top_competitors_array": [ { "name": "Independientes", "store_count": 43, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" }, { "name": "Interceramic", "store_count": 3, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" }, { "name": "Helvex", "store_count": 12, "source": "Helvex.com directorio (Cerámica grupo Bohemia)", "_audit_added": "round3_R28_fix_sanitarios_brands_missing" }, { "name": "Kohler", "store_count": 8, "source": "Kohler.mx directorio", "_audit_added": "round3_R28_fix_sanitarios_brands_missing" }, { "name": "American Standard", "store_count": 6, "source": "AS Latin America", "_audit_added": "round3_R28_fix_sanitarios_brands_missing" }, { "name": "Foset", "store_count": 5, "source": "Truper Foset", "_audit_added": "round3_R28_fix_sanitarios_brands_missing" }, { "name": "Roca", "store_count": 3, "source": "Roca.mx", "_audit_added": "round3_R28_fix_sanitarios_brands_missing" } ], "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024": 0, "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024": 0, "infonavit_creditos_2024": 58713, "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024": 27271679044.95, "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024": 24460, "fovissste_creditos_2024_state": 754, "housing_finance_match_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium": 25, "sam_serviceable_mdp": 72.44, "som_target_mdp": 6, "sam_assumption": "Semilujo+Lujo segments per Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json. NSE A/B/C+ households: ZM=25%, standalone=15%. Cesantoni price range $350-650/m² (v1 verified Jan 2026, may be stale).", "sam_cost_segments_match": "Monterrey", "conavi_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "infonavit_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy": [ { "name": "Helvex", "store_count": 1, "source": "CLAUDE.md + Helvex corporate — 280 distribuidores" } ], "top_competitors_source": "DENUE 467112 (2026-05-03)", "aggregation_caveat": "INFONAVIT 16/18, CONAVI 0/18, population 7/18 INEGI members have source data", "population_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_members_with_source_incomplete", "tam_mxn": 181100000, "sam_mxn": 72440000, "sam_pct": 40, "som_mxn": 2352489, "som_pct": 3.25, "cesantoni_propias": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores": 8, "revenue_target_annual_mxn": 705747, "revenue_target_monthly_mxn": 58812, "quadrant": "PRIORIDAD_2", "distribuidores_exterior_count": 3, "cesantoni_match_method": "excel_oficial_apr20", "cesantoni_presence_source": "none", "cost_segments": { "interes_social": { "nacional": 9591, "local": 10358 }, "medio": { "nacional": 13914, "local": 15027 }, "semilujo": { "nacional": 19978, "local": 21576 }, "lujo": { "nacional": 27588, "local": 29795 }, "source": "Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json (2026-03-22)", "unit": "MXN per m² of full vivienda construction (NOT just floor)" }, "cost_segments_plaza_matched": "Monterrey", "cesantoni_segment_fit": { "verdict": "fits_partial", "cesantoni_range_mxn_per_m2": [ 350, 650 ], "semi_lujo_floor_band_mxn_per_m2": [ 647.28, 1489.75 ], "cesa_overlap": [ 647.28, 650 ], "method": "floor_cost = total_local * 3-5% range", "source": "data/cesantoni-fit-by-plaza.json (2026-05-05)" }, "state_code": "19", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas": 257, "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado": 1421, "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023": 2490984000, "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023": 1596851000, "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023": 104802000, "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn": 9692544.747081712, "inegi_pbt_status": "real", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi": 13.077, "inegi_retail_source_note": "INEGI SAIC Censos Económicos 2024 (ref year 2023, SCIAN 467112 retail flooring)", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_note": "Share del mercado retail flooring nacional (INEGI SCIAN 467112, 2023) — REAL revenue share, not inferred", "payback_m_display": "53 meses", "payback_m_realistic": 61, "payback_quality_flag": "viable", "cesantoni_propias_v1": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1": 7, "nse_w_state_avg": 15.68, "nse_w_method": "per_plaza_heuristic_v1", "nse_w_adjustment": { "base_state": 15.68, "plaza_adjustment": 1.5, "reason": "capital_estado+industrial_corridor", "rules_applied": [ { "delta": 0.5, "rule": "capital_estado" }, { "delta": 1, "rule": "industrial_corridor" } ] }, "industrial_corridor": { "is_industrial": true, "category": "heavy_industry", "key_employers": [ "Cemex", "FEMSA", "Vitro", "Tenaris", "KIA Pesquería" ], "implication": "Demanda significativa de adhesivos industriales y SPC para piso técnico" }, "verdict_consistency_score": 50, "verdict_review_needed": true, "verdict_review_reason": "verdicts span 3 categories — review per-product TAM/score", "_round_10_changes": "Added KIA Pesquería to key_employers (Pesquería is part of MTY ZM)", "_industrial_corridor_corrected_round_10": "2026-05-05T17:51:48.286175+00:00", "_reliability_audit": { "tier_1_hard_count": 20, "tier_2_derived_count": 17, "tier_3_heuristic_count": 9, "tier_4_approx_count": 4, "fields_by_tier": { "tier_1": [ "cesa_pts", "cesantoni_distribuidores", "cesantoni_propias", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024", "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024", "distribuidores_exterior_count", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state", "hogares", "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn", "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas", "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023", "infonavit_creditos_2024", "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024", "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024", "population", "rank_nat", "rank_state" ], "tier_2": [ "invest_max_k", "invest_min_k", "payback_m_realistic", "revenue_target_annual_mxn", "revenue_target_monthly_mxn", "sam_mxn", "sam_pct", "sam_serviceable_mdp", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium", "som_mdp", "som_mxn", "som_pct", "som_target_mdp", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi", "tam_mxn", "tam_total_corrected_mdp", "tam_total_mdp" ], "tier_3": [ "gtm", "nse_w", "nse_w_state_avg", "payback_m", "quadrant", "score", "top_comp_pts", "verdict", "verdict_consistency_score" ], "tier_4": [ "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1", "cesantoni_propias_v1", "tam_mdp", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy" ] }, "unknown_numeric_fields": [], "smell_test_flags": [], "smell_test_count": 0 }, "tam_total_corrected_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "tam_total_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "sam_serviceable_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "som_target_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_y1_capture", "nse_w_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_v1_per_plaza", "infonavit_creditos_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_infonavit", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_fovissste", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_conavi", "population_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "hogares_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "cesa_pts_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_propias_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_distribuidores_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "score_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_atractivo_facilidad", "verdict_reliability": "tier_2_derived_from_T1_som", "payback_m_realistic_reliability": "tier_2_derived_invest_div_som_margin", "tam_mdp_reliability": "tier_4_approx_v1_legacy", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_reliability": "tier_2_derived_inegi_share", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censos_economicos_2024", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "invest_min_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "invest_max_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "_auto_fixed": [ { "test": "T2", "ts": "2026-05-06T01:52:51.317Z", "reason": "clamp SAM/TAM,SOM/SAM (was sam=43.3% som=3.0%)" } ], "climate": { "avg_temp_c": 22, "annual_rainfall_mm": 600, "rainy_months": [ "may", "jun", "jul", "ago", "sep" ], "dry_months": [ "oct", "nov", "dic", "ene", "feb", "mar", "abr" ], "climate_type": "semi-seco (BS) y muy seco", "construction_note": "Lluvias dispersas verano; calor extremo (>40°C) limita obra mediodía", "source": "CONAGUA SMN normales 1991-2020 (via INEGI Cuéntame + SEMARNAT)" }, "enec_seasonality": { "peak_month": "2025-11 (nov)", "peak_index": 157.1, "trough_month": "2025-05 (may)", "trough_index": 74.7, "cv_pct": 25.34, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.18, "latest_month": "2026-02", "latest_index": 130.5, "source": "INEGI ENEC monthly bulletins (Nov 2024 - Feb 2026, indices 2018=100)" }, "_round_21_climate_seasonality_added": true, "price_benchmark": { "price_per_unit_mxn": 2649, "price_per_m2_mxn": 2649, "unit_label": "/pieza", "source": "terra-v1 precomputed (city benchmark, retail public sources March 2026)", "source_city_v1": "Monterrey" }, "som_pct_old_T3": 3.2, "som_pct_reliability": "tier_1_derived_denue_density_corrected", "som_derivation_method": "(propias:0 + distrs_auth:10) / DENUE_467112(257) × 100, cap 10%", "verdict_old": "ATRACTIVA", "verdict_recomputed_2026_05_10": true, "som_pct_T1_correct_2026_05_10": 7.78, "tam_renovation_only_mdp": 763.1, "tam_renovation_only_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_renovation", "tam_renovation_only_mdp_note": "Solo demanda renovación recurrente: hogares × $750/hh/yr (Mordor mid-range, NO incluye new construction)", "tam_share_national_mdp": 1127.5, "tam_share_national_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_top_down", "tam_share_national_mdp_note": "Share proporcional hogares × $41B nacional consensus (industry 7 reports)", "tam_canonical_definition": "tam_total_corrected_mdp = TAM TOTAL mercado cerámicos (new construction + renovación). Para renovación solo ver tam_renovation_only_mdp; para share nacional ver tam_share_national_mdp.", "_cesa_pts_old": 2, "sam_mdp": 72.44 }, "spc": { "slug": "zm-monterrey", "city": "ZM Monterrey", "state": "Nuevo León", "product": "spc", "score": 46, "verdict": "OPORTUNIDAD", "rank_nat": 10, "rank_state": 1, "tam_mdp": 146.4, "som_mdp": 2.38, "gtm": "distribuidor_exclusivo", "invest_min_k": 2000, "invest_max_k": 4000, "payback_m": 61, "top_comp": "Home Depot (TrafficMaster)", "top_comp_pts": 95, "cesa_pts": 8, "population": 3690496, "hogares": 1017511, "nse_w": 17.18, "cesa_pts_breakdown": { "propios": 0, "distribuidores": 8, "source": "cesantoni-true-presence-by-plaza.json" }, "tam_total_mdp": 473, "tam_total_corrected_mdp": 146.4, "tam_mdp_note": "tam_total_corrected_mdp uses ÷1.2 factor — middle of Mordor benchmark range. Original tam_mdp preserved.", "top_competitors_array": [ { "name": "Independientes", "store_count": 43, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" }, { "name": "Interceramic", "store_count": 3, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" } ], "top_competitors_array_note": "source has no top_competitors", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024": 0, "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024": 0, "infonavit_creditos_2024": 58713, "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024": 27271679044.95, "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024": 24460, "fovissste_creditos_2024_state": 754, "housing_finance_match_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium": 25, "sam_serviceable_mdp": 58.56, "som_target_mdp": 5, "sam_assumption": "Semilujo+Lujo segments per Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json. NSE A/B/C+ households: ZM=25%, standalone=15%. Cesantoni price range $350-650/m² (v1 verified Jan 2026, may be stale).", "sam_cost_segments_match": "Monterrey", "conavi_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "infonavit_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy": null, "top_competitors_source": "DENUE 467112 (2026-05-03)", "aggregation_caveat": "INFONAVIT 16/18, CONAVI 0/18, population 7/18 INEGI members have source data", "population_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_members_with_source_incomplete", "tam_mxn": 146400000, "sam_mxn": 58560000, "sam_pct": 40, "som_mxn": 2376072, "som_pct": 4.06, "cesantoni_propias": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores": 8, "revenue_target_annual_mxn": 712822, "revenue_target_monthly_mxn": 59402, "quadrant": "PRIORIDAD_2", "distribuidores_exterior_count": 1, "cesantoni_match_method": "excel_oficial_apr20", "cesantoni_presence_source": "none", "cost_segments": { "interes_social": { "nacional": 9591, "local": 10358 }, "medio": { "nacional": 13914, "local": 15027 }, "semilujo": { "nacional": 19978, "local": 21576 }, "lujo": { "nacional": 27588, "local": 29795 }, "source": "Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json (2026-03-22)", "unit": "MXN per m² of full vivienda construction (NOT just floor)" }, "cost_segments_plaza_matched": "Monterrey", "cesantoni_segment_fit": { "verdict": "fits_partial", "cesantoni_range_mxn_per_m2": [ 350, 650 ], "semi_lujo_floor_band_mxn_per_m2": [ 647.28, 1489.75 ], "cesa_overlap": [ 647.28, 650 ], "method": "floor_cost = total_local * 3-5% range", "source": "data/cesantoni-fit-by-plaza.json (2026-05-05)" }, "state_code": "19", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas": 257, "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado": 1421, "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023": 2490984000, "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023": 1596851000, "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023": 104802000, "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn": 9692544.747081712, "inegi_pbt_status": "real", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi": 13.077, "inegi_retail_source_note": "INEGI SAIC Censos Económicos 2024 (ref year 2023, SCIAN 467112 retail flooring)", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_note": "Share del mercado retail flooring nacional (INEGI SCIAN 467112, 2023) — REAL revenue share, not inferred", "payback_m_display": "52 meses", "payback_m_realistic": 61, "payback_quality_flag": "viable", "cesantoni_propias_v1": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1": 7, "nse_w_state_avg": 15.68, "nse_w_method": "per_plaza_heuristic_v1", "nse_w_adjustment": { "base_state": 15.68, "plaza_adjustment": 1.5, "reason": "capital_estado+industrial_corridor", "rules_applied": [ { "delta": 0.5, "rule": "capital_estado" }, { "delta": 1, "rule": "industrial_corridor" } ] }, "industrial_corridor": { "is_industrial": true, "category": "heavy_industry", "key_employers": [ "Cemex", "FEMSA", "Vitro", "Tenaris", "KIA Pesquería" ], "implication": "Demanda significativa de adhesivos industriales y SPC para piso técnico" }, "verdict_consistency_score": 50, "verdict_review_needed": true, "verdict_review_reason": "verdicts span 3 categories — review per-product TAM/score", "_round_10_changes": "Added KIA Pesquería to key_employers (Pesquería is part of MTY ZM)", "_industrial_corridor_corrected_round_10": "2026-05-05T17:51:48.286175+00:00", "_reliability_audit": { "tier_1_hard_count": 20, "tier_2_derived_count": 17, "tier_3_heuristic_count": 9, "tier_4_approx_count": 4, "fields_by_tier": { "tier_1": [ "cesa_pts", "cesantoni_distribuidores", "cesantoni_propias", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024", "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024", "distribuidores_exterior_count", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state", "hogares", "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn", "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas", "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023", "infonavit_creditos_2024", "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024", "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024", "population", "rank_nat", "rank_state" ], "tier_2": [ "invest_max_k", "invest_min_k", "payback_m_realistic", "revenue_target_annual_mxn", "revenue_target_monthly_mxn", "sam_mxn", "sam_pct", "sam_serviceable_mdp", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium", "som_mdp", "som_mxn", "som_pct", "som_target_mdp", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi", "tam_mxn", "tam_total_corrected_mdp", "tam_total_mdp" ], "tier_3": [ "gtm", "nse_w", "nse_w_state_avg", "payback_m", "quadrant", "score", "top_comp_pts", "verdict", "verdict_consistency_score" ], "tier_4": [ "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1", "cesantoni_propias_v1", "tam_mdp", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy" ] }, "unknown_numeric_fields": [], "smell_test_flags": [], "smell_test_count": 0 }, "tam_total_corrected_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "tam_total_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "sam_serviceable_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "som_target_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_y1_capture", "nse_w_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_v1_per_plaza", "infonavit_creditos_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_infonavit", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_fovissste", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_conavi", "population_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "hogares_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "cesa_pts_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_propias_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_distribuidores_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "score_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_atractivo_facilidad", "verdict_reliability": "tier_2_derived_from_T1_som", "payback_m_realistic_reliability": "tier_2_derived_invest_div_som_margin", "tam_mdp_reliability": "tier_4_approx_v1_legacy", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_reliability": "tier_2_derived_inegi_share", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censos_economicos_2024", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "invest_min_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "invest_max_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "_auto_fixed": [ { "test": "T2", "ts": "2026-05-06T01:52:51.317Z", "reason": "clamp SAM/TAM,SOM/SAM (was sam=54.1% som=3.0%)" } ], "climate": { "avg_temp_c": 22, "annual_rainfall_mm": 600, "rainy_months": [ "may", "jun", "jul", "ago", "sep" ], "dry_months": [ "oct", "nov", "dic", "ene", "feb", "mar", "abr" ], "climate_type": "semi-seco (BS) y muy seco", "construction_note": "Lluvias dispersas verano; calor extremo (>40°C) limita obra mediodía", "source": "CONAGUA SMN normales 1991-2020 (via INEGI Cuéntame + SEMARNAT)" }, "enec_seasonality": { "peak_month": "2025-11 (nov)", "peak_index": 157.1, "trough_month": "2025-05 (may)", "trough_index": 74.7, "cv_pct": 25.34, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.18, "latest_month": "2026-02", "latest_index": 130.5, "source": "INEGI ENEC monthly bulletins (Nov 2024 - Feb 2026, indices 2018=100)" }, "_round_21_climate_seasonality_added": true, "price_benchmark": { "price_per_unit_mxn": 412, "price_per_m2_mxn": 412, "unit_label": "/m²", "source": "terra-v1 precomputed (city benchmark, retail public sources March 2026)", "source_city_v1": "Monterrey" }, "som_pct_old_T3": 4.1, "som_pct_reliability": "tier_1_derived_denue_density_corrected", "som_derivation_method": "(propias:0 + distrs_auth:10) / DENUE_467112(257) × 100, cap 10%", "verdict_old": "ATRACTIVA", "verdict_recomputed_2026_05_10": true, "som_pct_T1_correct_2026_05_10": 7.78, "tam_renovation_only_mdp": 763.1, "tam_renovation_only_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_renovation", "tam_renovation_only_mdp_note": "Solo demanda renovación recurrente: hogares × $750/hh/yr (Mordor mid-range, NO incluye new construction)", "tam_share_national_mdp": 1127.5, "tam_share_national_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_top_down", "tam_share_national_mdp_note": "Share proporcional hogares × $41B nacional consensus (industry 7 reports)", "tam_canonical_definition": "tam_total_corrected_mdp = TAM TOTAL mercado cerámicos (new construction + renovación). Para renovación solo ver tam_renovation_only_mdp; para share nacional ver tam_share_national_mdp.", "_top_comp_note": "Sin competidor dominante identificado en data set", "_cesa_pts_old": 2, "sam_mdp": 58.56 }, "wpc": { "slug": "zm-monterrey", "city": "ZM Monterrey", "state": "Nuevo León", "product": "wpc", "score": 56, "verdict": "ATRACTIVA", "rank_nat": 2, "rank_state": 1, "tam_mdp": 41, "som_mdp": 0.46, "gtm": "distribuidor_exclusivo", "invest_min_k": 2000, "invest_max_k": 4000, "payback_m": 266, "top_comp": "Home Depot", "top_comp_pts": 95, "cesa_pts": 8, "population": 3690496, "hogares": 1017511, "nse_w": 17.18, "cesa_pts_breakdown": { "propios": 0, "distribuidores": 8, "source": "cesantoni-true-presence-by-plaza.json" }, "tam_total_mdp": 133, "tam_total_corrected_mdp": 41, "tam_mdp_note": "tam_total_corrected_mdp uses ÷1.2 factor — middle of Mordor benchmark range. Original tam_mdp preserved.", "top_competitors_array": [ { "name": "Independientes", "store_count": 43, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" }, { "name": "Interceramic", "store_count": 3, "source": "DENUE SCIAN 467112 (2026-05-03)" } ], "top_competitors_array_note": "source has no top_competitors", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024": 0, "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024": 0, "infonavit_creditos_2024": 58713, "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024": 27271679044.95, "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024": 24460, "fovissste_creditos_2024_state": 754, "housing_finance_match_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium": 25, "sam_serviceable_mdp": 15.5, "som_target_mdp": 1, "sam_assumption": "Semilujo+Lujo segments per Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json. NSE A/B/C+ households: ZM=25%, standalone=15%. Cesantoni price range $350-650/m² (v1 verified Jan 2026, may be stale).", "sam_cost_segments_match": "Monterrey", "conavi_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "infonavit_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_full_inegi_members", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy": null, "top_competitors_source": "DENUE 467112 (2026-05-03)", "verdict_overridden_from": "ATRACTIVA", "verdict_reason": "payback_too_long_266_months", "aggregation_caveat": "INFONAVIT 16/18, CONAVI 0/18, population 7/18 INEGI members have source data", "population_aggregation_method": "zm_sum_of_members_with_source_incomplete", "tam_mxn": 41000000, "sam_mxn": 15498000, "sam_pct": 37.8, "som_mxn": 464940, "som_pct": 3, "cesantoni_propias": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores": 8, "revenue_target_annual_mxn": 139482, "revenue_target_monthly_mxn": 11624, "quadrant": "PRIORIDAD_2", "distribuidores_exterior_count": 1, "cesantoni_match_method": "excel_oficial_apr20", "cesantoni_presence_source": "none", "cost_segments": { "interes_social": { "nacional": 9591, "local": 10358 }, "medio": { "nacional": 13914, "local": 15027 }, "semilujo": { "nacional": 19978, "local": 21576 }, "lujo": { "nacional": 27588, "local": 29795 }, "source": "Excel TERRA cost-segments-by-plaza.json (2026-03-22)", "unit": "MXN per m² of full vivienda construction (NOT just floor)" }, "cost_segments_plaza_matched": "Monterrey", "cesantoni_segment_fit": { "verdict": "fits_partial", "cesantoni_range_mxn_per_m2": [ 350, 650 ], "semi_lujo_floor_band_mxn_per_m2": [ 647.28, 1489.75 ], "cesa_overlap": [ 647.28, 650 ], "method": "floor_cost = total_local * 3-5% range", "source": "data/cesantoni-fit-by-plaza.json (2026-05-05)" }, "state_code": "19", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas": 257, "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado": 1421, "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023": 2490984000, "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023": 1596851000, "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023": 104802000, "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn": 9692544.747081712, "inegi_pbt_status": "real", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi": 13.077, "inegi_retail_source_note": "INEGI SAIC Censos Económicos 2024 (ref year 2023, SCIAN 467112 retail flooring)", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_note": "Share del mercado retail flooring nacional (INEGI SCIAN 467112, 2023) — REAL revenue share, not inferred", "payback_m_display": "No rentable (>5 años)", "payback_m_realistic": 120, "payback_quality_flag": "non_viable", "cesantoni_propias_v1": 0, "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1": 7, "nse_w_state_avg": 15.68, "nse_w_method": "per_plaza_heuristic_v1", "nse_w_adjustment": { "base_state": 15.68, "plaza_adjustment": 1.5, "reason": "capital_estado+industrial_corridor", "rules_applied": [ { "delta": 0.5, "rule": "capital_estado" }, { "delta": 1, "rule": "industrial_corridor" } ] }, "industrial_corridor": { "is_industrial": true, "category": "heavy_industry", "key_employers": [ "Cemex", "FEMSA", "Vitro", "Tenaris", "KIA Pesquería" ], "implication": "Demanda significativa de adhesivos industriales y SPC para piso técnico" }, "verdict_consistency_score": 50, "verdict_review_needed": true, "verdict_review_reason": "verdicts span 3 categories — review per-product TAM/score", "_round_10_changes": "Added KIA Pesquería to key_employers (Pesquería is part of MTY ZM)", "_industrial_corridor_corrected_round_10": "2026-05-05T17:51:48.286175+00:00", "_reliability_audit": { "tier_1_hard_count": 20, "tier_2_derived_count": 17, "tier_3_heuristic_count": 9, "tier_4_approx_count": 4, "fields_by_tier": { "tier_1": [ "cesa_pts", "cesantoni_distribuidores", "cesantoni_propias", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024", "conavi_subsidio_monto_mxn_2024", "distribuidores_exterior_count", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state", "hogares", "inegi_retail_avg_revenue_per_ue_mxn", "inegi_retail_inversion_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023", "inegi_retail_personal_ocupado", "inegi_retail_unidades_economicas", "inegi_retail_valor_agregado_mxn_2023", "infonavit_creditos_2024", "infonavit_creditos_nueva_2024", "infonavit_monto_mxn_2024", "population", "rank_nat", "rank_state" ], "tier_2": [ "invest_max_k", "invest_min_k", "payback_m_realistic", "revenue_target_annual_mxn", "revenue_target_monthly_mxn", "sam_mxn", "sam_pct", "sam_serviceable_mdp", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium", "som_mdp", "som_mxn", "som_pct", "som_target_mdp", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi", "tam_mxn", "tam_total_corrected_mdp", "tam_total_mdp" ], "tier_3": [ "gtm", "nse_w", "nse_w_state_avg", "payback_m", "quadrant", "score", "top_comp_pts", "verdict", "verdict_consistency_score" ], "tier_4": [ "cesantoni_distribuidores_v1", "cesantoni_propias_v1", "tam_mdp", "top_competitors_array_v1_legacy" ] }, "unknown_numeric_fields": [], "smell_test_flags": [ { "test": "high_infonavit_low_verdict", "value": 58713, "msg": "INFONAVIT=58,713 but verdict=EMERGENTE — review" } ], "smell_test_count": 1 }, "tam_total_corrected_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "tam_total_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_calibrated", "sam_serviceable_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "som_target_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_y1_capture", "nse_w_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_v1_per_plaza", "infonavit_creditos_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_infonavit", "fovissste_creditos_2024_state_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_fovissste", "conavi_subsidio_acciones_2024_reliability": "tier_1_hard_sniiv_conavi", "population_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "hogares_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censo_2020", "cesa_pts_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_propias_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "cesantoni_distribuidores_reliability": "tier_1_hard_cesantoni_truth_file", "score_reliability": "tier_3_heuristic_atractivo_facilidad", "verdict_reliability": "tier_2_derived_from_T1_som", "payback_m_realistic_reliability": "tier_2_derived_invest_div_som_margin", "tam_mdp_reliability": "tier_4_approx_v1_legacy", "state_real_market_share_pct_inegi_reliability": "tier_2_derived_inegi_share", "inegi_retail_pbt_mxn_2023_reliability": "tier_1_hard_inegi_censos_economicos_2024", "sam_serviceable_pct_premium_reliability": "tier_2_derived_premium_pct", "invest_min_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "invest_max_k_reliability": "tier_2_derived_gtm_envelope", "_auto_fixed": [ { "test": "T5", "ts": "2026-05-06T01:52:51.319Z", "reason": "cesa_pts>=5 EMERGENTE → OPORTUNIDAD", "from": "EMERGENTE", "to": "OPORTUNIDAD" } ], "climate": { "avg_temp_c": 22, "annual_rainfall_mm": 600, "rainy_months": [ "may", "jun", "jul", "ago", "sep" ], "dry_months": [ "oct", "nov", "dic", "ene", "feb", "mar", "abr" ], "climate_type": "semi-seco (BS) y muy seco", "construction_note": "Lluvias dispersas verano; calor extremo (>40°C) limita obra mediodía", "source": "CONAGUA SMN normales 1991-2020 (via INEGI Cuéntame + SEMARNAT)" }, "enec_seasonality": { "peak_month": "2025-11 (nov)", "peak_index": 157.1, "trough_month": "2025-05 (may)", "trough_index": 74.7, "cv_pct": 25.34, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.18, "latest_month": "2026-02", "latest_index": 130.5, "source": "INEGI ENEC monthly bulletins (Nov 2024 - Feb 2026, indices 2018=100)" }, "_round_21_climate_seasonality_added": true, "price_benchmark": { "price_per_unit_mxn": 1219, "price_per_m2_mxn": 1219, "unit_label": "/tabla 2.4m", "source": "terra-v1 precomputed (city benchmark, retail public sources March 2026)", "source_city_v1": "Monterrey" }, "som_pct_old_T3": 3, "som_pct_reliability": "tier_1_derived_denue_density_corrected", "som_derivation_method": "(propias:0 + distrs_auth:10) / DENUE_467112(257) × 100, cap 10%", "verdict_old": "OPORTUNIDAD", "verdict_recomputed_2026_05_10": true, "som_pct_T1_correct_2026_05_10": 7.78, "tam_renovation_only_mdp": 763.1, "tam_renovation_only_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_mordor_renovation", "tam_renovation_only_mdp_note": "Solo demanda renovación recurrente: hogares × $750/hh/yr (Mordor mid-range, NO incluye new construction)", "tam_share_national_mdp": 1127.5, "tam_share_national_mdp_reliability": "tier_2_derived_top_down", "tam_share_national_mdp_note": "Share proporcional hogares × $41B nacional consensus (industry 7 reports)", "tam_canonical_definition": "tam_total_corrected_mdp = TAM TOTAL mercado cerámicos (new construction + renovación). Para renovación solo ver tam_renovation_only_mdp; para share nacional ver tam_share_national_mdp.", "_top_comp_note": "Sin competidor dominante identificado en data set", "_cesa_pts_old": 2, "sam_mdp": 15.5 } } }