Macro live · todos los flujos cerámica MX (CIF wholesale)
Banxico FX + tasas · INEGI construcción · FRED USA macro · UN Comtrade flujos oficiales HS6907/6908/6910/3918/3506 (todos los países que exportan a MX). Última actualización: 2026-05-18 13:01 UTC.
FX exposure model · sensibilidad EBITDA a USD/MXN
FX live: USD/MXN 17.3477 (15/05/2026) · Banxico SIECOGS en USD
25%
$261.0M MXN
Revenue en USD
15%
$217.5M MXN
Exposure neto
-3.0%
natural short USD
EBITDA baseline
$406M
28% margin
| ΔFX | USD/MXN | Δ COGS impact | Δ Revenue impact | Net Δ EBITDA | % EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | 15.61 | +$26.1M | $-21.8M | +$4.3M | +1.1% |
| -5% | 16.48 | +$13.1M | $-10.9M | +$2.2M | +0.5% |
| 0% | 17.35 | — | — | — | — |
| +5% | 18.22 | $-13.1M | +$10.9M | $-2.2M | -0.5% |
| +10% | 19.08 | $-26.1M | +$21.8M | $-4.3M | -1.1% |
Recomendación hedging
Exposure neto < 5% — natural hedge funciona, no requiere hedge financiero adicional
Inputs estimados (sustituir con datos reales Cesantoni cuando disponibles): COGS USD share 25% (ASCER analog mid-premium MX tile), Revenue USD share 15% (Cesantoni export share aprox), EBITDA margin 28% (baseline scenarios page, admitido como estimación). FX rate de data/macro-live.json → banxico.USD_MXN_FIX, auto-refresh diario.
🎯 Hallazgos clave · 2026-05-13
HS 350691 · EXPORT
MX exporta $72.6M de Adhesivos polímeros → principal destino USA (80%)
MX es jugador relevante en exportación. Precio promedio 3.79 $/kg. Posición competitiva confirmada en mercados USA.
HS 391810 · EXPORT
MX exporta $114.4M de SPC/WPC revestimientos PVC → principal destino USA (100%)
MX es jugador relevante en exportación. Precio promedio 1.24 $/kg. Posición competitiva confirmada en mercados USA.
HS 690722 · EXPORT
MX exporta $101.2M de Cerámica revestimiento 0.5-10% → principal destino USA (75%)
MX es jugador relevante en exportación. Precio promedio 0.44 $/kg. Posición competitiva confirmada en mercados USA.
HS 691010 · EXPORT
MX exporta $155.7M de Sanitarios porcelana/china → principal destino USA (100%)
MX es jugador relevante en exportación. Precio promedio 2.04 $/kg. Posición competitiva confirmada en mercados USA.
HS 691090 · EXPORT
MX exporta $189.9M de Sanitarios otras cerámicas → principal destino USA (96%)
MX es jugador relevante en exportación. Precio promedio 1.75 $/kg. Posición competitiva confirmada en mercados USA.
HS 350691 · ARBITRAJE
Adhesivos polímeros: imports 16.12 $/kg vs exports 3.68 $/kg (gap 4.4×)
MX importa premium y exporta commodity. Oportunidad: producir doméstico para reemplazar imports a precios premium.
📤 Exportaciones MX · destinos · 6 meses
flowCode=X · 2026-05-13Adhesivos polímeros
HS 350691
Exportado: $72.6M · avg 3.68 $/kg
| USA | 80% | $58.0M | 3.79/kg |
| Brazil | 6% | $4.3M | 3.16/kg |
| Colombia | 3% | $2.5M | 2.73/kg |
| Peru | 3% | $2.0M | 3.92/kg |
| Canada | 2% | $1.7M | 3.32/kg |
| Guatemala | 2% | $1.4M | 3.51/kg |
SPC/WPC revestimientos PVC
HS 391810
Exportado: $114.4M · avg 1.25 $/kg
| USA | 100% | $114.1M | 1.24/kg |
| Guatemala | 0% | $0.3M | 2.62/kg |
Porcelánico ≤0.5% absorción
HS 690721
Exportado: $23.8M · avg 0.63 $/kg
| USA | 89% | $21.1M | 0.63/kg |
| Panama | 4% | $1.1M | 0.63/kg |
| Guatemala | 4% | $0.9M | 0.63/kg |
| Belize | 3% | $0.6M | 0.63/kg |
| Costa Rica | 0% | $0.1M | 0.63/kg |
Cerámica revestimiento 0.5-10%
HS 690722
Exportado: $101.2M · avg 0.44 $/kg
| USA | 75% | $75.6M | 0.44/kg |
| Panama | 19% | $18.8M | 0.44/kg |
| El Salvador | 3% | $3.0M | 0.44/kg |
| Guatemala | 2% | $2.4M | 0.44/kg |
| Belize | 1% | $1.5M | 0.44/kg |
Azulejos tradicionales >10%
HS 690723
Exportado: $38.7M · avg 0.81 $/kg
| USA | 99% | $38.5M | 0.81/kg |
| Guatemala | 0% | $0.1M | 0.81/kg |
| Belize | 0% | $0.1M | 0.81/kg |
Sanitarios porcelana/china
HS 691010
Exportado: $155.7M · avg 2.04 $/kg
| USA | 100% | $155.7M | 2.04/kg |
Sanitarios otras cerámicas
HS 691090
Exportado: $189.9M · avg 1.75 $/kg
| USA | 96% | $182.9M | 1.75/kg |
| Canada | 3% | $5.0M | 1.67/kg |
| Guatemala | 1% | $1.5M | 1.99/kg |
| El Salvador | 0% | $0.6M | 2.02/kg |
| Belize | 0% | $0.0M | 2.51/kg |
🌎 Importaciones MX por país · 6 meses trailing
UN Comtrade · 2026-05-13Adhesivos polímeros
HS 350691
Total: $236.2M · 313 registros
| USA | 68% | $160.5M | 8.44/kg |
| China | 8% | $20.0M | 3.32/kg |
| Germany | 4% | $10.1M | 15.55/kg |
| Italy | 4% | $9.6M | 9.59/kg |
| Japan | 3% | $7.1M | 38.05/kg |
| Spain | 3% | $6.8M | 3.11/kg |
| Other Asia, nes | 1% | $3.3M | 16.79/kg |
SPC/WPC revestimientos PVC
HS 391810
Total: $55.8M · 157 registros
| China | 64% | $36.0M | 1.15/kg |
| USA | 16% | $9.2M | 3.63/kg |
| Rep. of Korea | 7% | $4.0M | 0.66/kg |
| France | 4% | $2.2M | 6.31/kg |
| Germany | 3% | $1.4M | 4.57/kg |
| Viet Nam | 2% | $1.0M | 1.02/kg |
| United Kingdom | 1% | $0.8M | 3.36/kg |
Porcelánico ≤0.5% absorción
HS 690721
Total: $136.4M · 114 registros
| India | 39% | $53.5M | 2.9/kg |
| Spain | 24% | $33.0M | 1.79/kg |
| Italy | 14% | $18.6M | 1.98/kg |
| Viet Nam | 14% | $18.6M | 1.73/kg |
| China | 7% | $9.4M | 1.51/kg |
| USA | 2% | $2.8M | 2.06/kg |
| Brazil | 0% | $0.3M | —/kg |
Cerámica revestimiento 0.5-10%
HS 690722
Total: $6.9M · 49 registros
| Peru | 61% | $4.2M | 1.55/kg |
| Spain | 26% | $1.8M | 1.33/kg |
| China | 5% | $0.3M | 0.72/kg |
| USA | 4% | $0.3M | 1.5/kg |
| India | 3% | $0.2M | 0.53/kg |
| Colombia | 1% | $0.1M | —/kg |
| Morocco | 0% | $0.0M | —/kg |
Azulejos tradicionales >10%
HS 690723
Total: $8.3M · 48 registros
| Spain | 66% | $5.5M | 1.98/kg |
| India | 27% | $2.2M | 3.99/kg |
| Peru | 6% | $0.5M | 0.54/kg |
| Italy | 0% | $0.0M | —/kg |
| USA | 0% | $0.0M | —/kg |
| China | 0% | $0.0M | —/kg |
Sanitarios porcelana/china
HS 691010
Total: $10.1M · 45 registros
| China | 90% | $9.1M | 1.25/kg |
| USA | 8% | $0.9M | 4.07/kg |
| Thailand | 1% | $0.1M | 4.46/kg |
| Spain | 0% | $0.0M | 9.67/kg |
| Indonesia | 0% | $0.0M | 5.12/kg |
Sanitarios otras cerámicas
HS 691090
Total: $55.1M · 101 registros
| China | 98% | $53.8M | 0.85/kg |
| USA | 1% | $0.3M | 2.29/kg |
| Germany | 1% | $0.3M | 17.21/kg |
| Thailand | 0% | $0.2M | 3.94/kg |
| Italy | 0% | $0.2M | 13.36/kg |
| Viet Nam | 0% | $0.2M | 1.56/kg |
| Türkiye | 0% | $0.0M | 4.58/kg |
🇲🇽 Banxico
FX + tasasUSD/MXN FIX$17.3477
TIIE 28d6.7458%
CETES 28d6.54%
TIIE 91d6.7829%
Tasa objetivo Banxico6.5%
INPC general (MX)144.991
🇲🇽 INEGI
construcción + IGAEValor producción construcción48,912 MDP
IGAE var anual0.43%
Población total126,014,024
🇺🇸 FRED
USA macroUS 30-yr Mortgage6.36%
US Housing Starts1,502k SAAR
US Housing Permits1,363k SAAR
US CPI Index332.41
USD/MXN (FRED)$17.207
US Clay Tile PPI145.56
US 10-yr Treasury4.47%
US Constr. Spending$941,703M
US Industrial Prod102.5
US Natural Gas (HH)$2.77/MMBtu
US Iron/Steel PPI353.92