TAM reconciliación · 3-way cross-check
Esta página corre 3 estimadores independientes contra cada plaza como sanity-check. Ninguno es el canonical de Terra v2 — el canonical es el SSOT per-plaza derivado del snapshot inmutable (/ranking, /methodology). Los 3 estimadores aquí miden conceptos distintos por construcción; convergen en orden de magnitud, no en cifra exacta.
📌 SSOT vs estimadores aquí
El TAM canónico de Terra v2 vive en terra_snapshots y se publica en public/data-api/v1/plazas/[slug].json → products.pisos.tam_mdp. Es derivado per-plaza (calibración efectiva 1.5×–5.5× según mix segmento/obra/NSE), NO un multiplicador uniforme aplicado al bottom-up. Para pisos: nacional Mordor 2026 = $41.4B MXN; Σ plazas modeladas = $19.9B MXN (48% del nacional, gap explicado por autoconstrucción rural + obra federal dispersa no asignadas a plaza).
Los 3 estimadores abajo (A/B/C) son cross-checks alternativos usados para detectar drift. Spread alto entre ellos es esperado — cada uno simplifica el mercado de forma distinta. Para defender una cifra ante cliente, citar el SSOT, no estos.
Totales agregados · 3 estimadores
TAM nacional A · bottom-up
$18.1 mil MDP
Σ plazas via hogares × renov × ticket (con calibración Mordor ya aplicada)
TAM nacional B · top-down share
$41.4 mil MDP
Σ (hogares_plaza / hogares_nacional) × $41B Mordor
TAM nacional C · flat $750/hh
$14.1 mil MDP
Σ hogares × $750 MXN/HH — back-of-envelope
Spread mediana entre A/B/C: 194.6% · p90: 211.7%. Divergencia esperada y no-bug — los 3 estimadores miden conceptos distintos.
¿Qué mide cada estimador realmente?
TAM_A · Mordor bottom-up [CROSS-CHECK CONSERVADOR]
Fórmula efectiva:
hogares × 0.05 renov anual × 50 m² × $300/m² × calibración_plaza ≈ $750–$3,500/HH/año según mix.Mide: demanda anual residencial (renovación + obra nueva fraccional) en cada plaza, con calibración Mordor ya incorporada por plaza (varía 1.5×–5.5×, no uniforme).Usar para: sanity-check del SSOT; si TAM_A está cerca del SSOT la calibración es internamente consistente.Limitación: los valores aquí provienen del snapshot legacy de triangulación 2026-05-13; pueden divergir del SSOT actual si hubo re-import posterior.
TAM_B · Top-down national share [ALT 3-WAY CHECK]
Fórmula:
hogares_plaza / Σ hogares_109 × $41B Mordor (denominador = suma hogares plazas modeladas, no hogares nacionales totales)Mide: slice proporcional asumiendo demanda uniform per-hogar a nivel nacional.Usar para: sanity-check vs A. Si B >> A → plaza está sobre-representada en consumo nacional (premium); si B << A → infra-representada.Limitación: ignora que CDMX/MTY/Cabos consumen 2-3× per-cap vs Chiapas/Oaxaca.
TAM_C · Simple $750/hh/yr [FLOOR HEURÍSTICO]
Fórmula:
hogares × $750 MXN/hh/yrMide: back-of-envelope rápido usando rango medio Mordor.Usar para: validar orden de magnitud. Si C ≈ A → consistente. Si C divergente → revisar parámetros A.Limitación: flat assumption ignora todo (NSE, urbanización, ciclo construcción).
📋 Cómo leer esta tabla
- Para reportar a cliente, usar el SSOT — disponible en /ranking y per-plaza pages. Los A/B/C de esta tabla son herramientas internas de drift-detection, no las cifras que se citan externamente.
- Banda [min(A,B,C), max(A,B,C)] = rango de cross-check, NO un intervalo de confianza estadístico. Banda > ±50% indica que los 3 modelos discrepan mucho en esa plaza — flag para revisión manual del SSOT.
- Si B > A × 1.3 → plaza premium (Cabos, QR, CDMX premium) — el bottom-up A subestima cuando el ticket real está por encima del promedio.
- Si A > B × 1.3 → plaza con muchos hogares pero bajo consumo per-cap (rural Chiapas/Oaxaca/Guerrero) — el top-down B subestima por usar share de hogares ignorando NSE.
- Si C ≈ A ±20% → consistencia interna OK del bottom-up.
- Validación final pendiente: cuando entren datos reales de Cesantoni sales por plaza, recalibrar los parámetros del SSOT (renov %, ticket por NSE).
109 plazas · canonical + intervalo de confianza
| Plaza | Estado | Hogares | Canonical A (MDP) | B (MDP) | C (MDP) | CI band ±% | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZMVM (Valle de México) | Ciudad de México | 3,709,016 | $3,342 | $8,194 | $2,782 | ±162% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Guadalajara | Jalisco | 1,357,454 | $1,459 | $2,999 | $1,018 | ±136% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Monterrey | Nuevo León | 1,017,511 | $1,170 | $2,248 | $763 | ±127% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Tijuana | Baja California | 601,522 | $669 | $1,329 | $451 | ±131% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Cancún | Quintana Roo | 354,990 | $660 | $784 | $266 | ±78% | ⚠ revisar params |
| ZM Querétaro | Querétaro | 406,358 | $544 | $898 | $305 | ±109% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM León | Guanajuato | 584,916 | $472 | $1,292 | $439 | ±181% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Puebla | Puebla | 518,152 | $465 | $1,145 | $389 | ±163% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Mérida | Yucatán | 346,688 | $400 | $766 | $260 | ±126% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Juárez | Chihuahua | 432,446 | $383 | $955 | $324 | ±165% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Mexicali | Baja California | 308,124 | $342 | $681 | $231 | ±131% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Aguascalientes | Aguascalientes | 323,941 | $331 | $716 | $243 | ±143% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM La Laguna | Coahuila | 343,281 | $323 | $758 | $258 | ±155% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Toluca | Estado de México | 305,633 | $322 | $675 | $229 | ±139% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Hermosillo | Sonora | 267,750 | $282 | $592 | $201 | ±139% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM San Luis Potosí | San Luis Potosí | 324,652 | $269 | $717 | $244 | ±176% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Culiacán | Sinaloa | 274,019 | $246 | $605 | $206 | ±163% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Chihuahua | Chihuahua | 268,121 | $238 | $592 | $201 | ±164% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Saltillo | Coahuila | 242,872 | $232 | $537 | $182 | ±153% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Los Cabos | Baja California Sur | 101,840 | $208 | $225 | $76 | ±71% | ⚠ revisar params |
| Morelia | Michoacán | 232,110 | $190 | $513 | $174 | ±178% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Pachuca | Hidalgo | 178,785 | $174 | $395 | $134 | ±150% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Tampico | Tamaulipas | 252,712 | $172 | $558 | $190 | ±225% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Durango | Durango | 185,528 | $172 | $410 | $139 | ±157% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Cuernavaca | Morelos | 196,911 | $166 | $435 | $148 | ±173% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Reynosa-Río Bravo | Tamaulipas | 227,969 | $163 | $504 | $171 | ±209% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Centro (Villahermosa) | Tabasco | 184,238 | $158 | $407 | $138 | ±170% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Irapuato | Guanajuato | 160,702 | $155 | $355 | $121 | ±151% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Acapulco | Guerrero | 212,147 | $151 | $469 | $159 | ±210% | ↑ premium uplift |
| La Paz | Baja California Sur | 84,764 | $150 | $187 | $64 | ±82% | ⚠ revisar params |
| ZM Veracruz-Boca del Río | Veracruz | 211,640 | $150 | $468 | $159 | ±212% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Ensenada | Baja California | 130,262 | $145 | $288 | $98 | ±131% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Celaya | Guanajuato | 138,726 | $134 | $307 | $104 | ±151% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Cajeme (Cd. Obregón) | Sonora | 123,838 | $130 | $274 | $93 | ±139% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Mazatlán | Sinaloa | 136,921 | $122 | $303 | $103 | ±164% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tuxtla Gutiérrez | Chiapas | 149,473 | $121 | $330 | $112 | ±180% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Matamoros | Tamaulipas | 168,768 | $120 | $373 | $127 | ±211% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Othón P. Blanco (Chetumal) | Quintana Roo | 66,604 | $112 | $147 | $50 | ±87% | ⚠ revisar params |
| Los Mochis (Ahome) | Sinaloa | 125,417 | $112 | $277 | $94 | ±163% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tepic | Nayarit | 117,945 | $109 | $261 | $89 | ±158% | ↑ premium uplift |
| San Juan del Río | Querétaro | 80,255 | $109 | $177 | $60 | ±107% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Xalapa | Veracruz | 137,534 | $98 | $304 | $103 | ±210% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Nuevo Laredo | Tamaulipas | 117,027 | $97 | $259 | $88 | ±176% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Puerto Vallarta | Jalisco | 81,734 | $88 | $181 | $61 | ±136% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Ciudad Victoria | Tamaulipas | 102,475 | $85 | $226 | $77 | ±176% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Nogales | Sonora | 75,722 | $80 | $167 | $57 | ±138% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Uruapan | Michoacán | 95,363 | $78 | $211 | $72 | ±178% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tehuacán | Puebla | 85,437 | $77 | $189 | $64 | ±162% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Chalco | Estado de México | 106,053 | $76 | $234 | $80 | ±208% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tapachula | Chiapas | 87,044 | $71 | $192 | $65 | ±179% | ↑ premium uplift |
| ZM Zacatecas-Guadalupe | Zacatecas | 97,240 | $68 | $215 | $73 | ±216% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Campeche | Campeche | 79,974 | $65 | $177 | $60 | ±180% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Monclova | Coahuila | 65,681 | $62 | $145 | $49 | ±155% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Coatzacoalcos | Veracruz | 87,470 | $62 | $193 | $66 | ±212% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Salamanca | Guanajuato | 74,060 | $58 | $164 | $56 | ±186% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Cárdenas | Tabasco | 65,552 | $57 | $145 | $49 | ±168% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Carmen | Campeche | 67,673 | $55 | $150 | $51 | ±179% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Chilpancingo de los Bravo | Guerrero | 77,110 | $55 | $170 | $58 | ±210% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Oaxaca de Juárez | Oaxaca | 72,599 | $55 | $160 | $54 | ±193% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Silao | Guanajuato | 53,287 | $52 | $118 | $40 | ±149% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Guanajuato | Guanajuato | 52,819 | $51 | $117 | $40 | ±151% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Comalcalco | Tabasco | 57,911 | $50 | $128 | $43 | ±169% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Navojoa | Sonora | 47,011 | $49 | $104 | $35 | ±140% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Manzanillo | Colima | 55,332 | $48 | $122 | $42 | ±168% | ↑ premium uplift |
| San Miguel de Allende | Guanajuato | 46,479 | $48 | $103 | $35 | ±141% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Bahía de Banderas | Nayarit | 51,958 | $48 | $115 | $39 | ±158% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Piedras Negras | Coahuila | 48,453 | $46 | $107 | $36 | ±154% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Zamora | Michoacán | 56,004 | $46 | $124 | $42 | ±178% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Fresnillo | Zacatecas | 65,099 | $46 | $144 | $49 | ±213% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Lázaro Cárdenas | Michoacán | 53,582 | $44 | $118 | $40 | ±178% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Cuautla | Morelos | 51,997 | $44 | $115 | $39 | ±173% | ↑ premium uplift |
| San Cristóbal de las Casas | Chiapas | 53,410 | $43 | $118 | $40 | ±181% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tulancingo de Bravo | Hidalgo | 43,920 | $42 | $97 | $33 | ±153% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Córdoba | Veracruz | 57,634 | $41 | $127 | $43 | ±210% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Ciudad Valles | San Luis Potosí | 47,636 | $40 | $105 | $36 | ±174% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Colima | Colima | 45,489 | $39 | $101 | $34 | ±170% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Delicias | Chihuahua | 42,332 | $38 | $94 | $32 | ±163% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Poza Rica | Veracruz | 53,337 | $38 | $118 | $40 | ±210% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tecate | Baja California | 31,828 | $36 | $70 | $24 | ±129% | ↑ premium uplift |
| San Luis de la Paz | Guanajuato | 34,214 | $33 | $76 | $26 | ±151% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Atlixco | Puebla | 37,012 | $33 | $82 | $28 | ±164% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tuxtepec | Oaxaca | 42,723 | $32 | $94 | $32 | ±195% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Iguala | Guerrero | 41,435 | $30 | $92 | $31 | ±205% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Hidalgo del Parral | Chihuahua | 32,949 | $29 | $73 | $25 | ±166% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Apatzingán | Michoacán | 33,803 | $28 | $75 | $25 | ±176% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Valladolid | Yucatán | 23,288 | $27 | $51 | $18 | ±126% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Zihuatanejo de Azueta | Guerrero | 34,289 | $24 | $76 | $26 | ±216% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Río Bravo | Tamaulipas | 35,100 | $24 | $78 | $26 | ±223% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Juchitán | Oaxaca | 30,430 | $23 | $67 | $23 | ±193% | ↑ premium uplift |
| La Piedad | Michoacán | 27,304 | $22 | $60 | $21 | ±181% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Huamantla | Tlaxcala | 24,993 | $22 | $55 | $19 | ±166% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tlaxcala | Tlaxcala | 25,280 | $22 | $56 | $19 | ±168% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Pánuco | Veracruz | 28,200 | $20 | $62 | $21 | ±211% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Apaseo el Grande | Guanajuato | 25,022 | $20 | $55 | $19 | ±183% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Salina Cruz | Oaxaca | 22,624 | $18 | $50 | $17 | ±183% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Apizaco | Tlaxcala | 20,428 | $18 | $45 | $15 | ±166% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Matehuala | San Luis Potosí | 28,102 | $18 | $62 | $21 | ±245% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Arandas | Jalisco | 15,432 | $17 | $34 | $12 | ±132% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Huajuapan de León | Oaxaca | 20,983 | $16 | $46 | $16 | ±192% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Rioverde | San Luis Potosí | 25,804 | $16 | $57 | $19 | ±256% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Pueblo Viejo | Veracruz | 16,780 | $12 | $37 | $13 | ±209% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Huatulco | Oaxaca | 13,628 | $11 | $30 | $10 | ±181% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Jerez | Zacatecas | 15,503 | $11 | $34 | $12 | ±212% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tulum | Quintana Roo | 13,318 | $10 | $29 | $10 | ±194% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Calera | Zacatecas | 12,921 | $9 | $29 | $10 | ±217% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Ojocaliente | Zacatecas | 10,834 | $8 | $24 | $8 | ±199% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Tetla de la Solidaridad | Tlaxcala | 7,307 | $7 | $16 | $6 | ±151% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Colotlán | Jalisco | 5,321 | $6 | $12 | $4 | ±130% | ↑ premium uplift |
| Jalpa | Zacatecas | 6,043 | $4 | $13 | $5 | ±235% | ↑ premium uplift |