Triangulación TAM/SOM · 3 estimadores independientes
Cada plaza pisos calculada con 3 métodos independientes. Si convergen ±15% (TAM) o ±30% (SOM) → confianza alta. Si divergen → flag metodológico.
⚠️ Resultado de la triangulación
TAM converge ±15%
0/109
0% — los 3 estimadores miden cosas distintas
SOM converge ±30%
16/109
15% — mejor que TAM
Both converge
0
High-confidence plazas
Interpretación honesta: 0/109 TAM convergencia revela que el modelo Mordor (Estimator A) incluye nueva construcción ($3,500/hh) mientras top-down (B, $1,100/hh) y simple (C, $750/hh) miden renovación. Acción: alinear los 3 estimadores al mismo concepto de TAM, o usar A solo para "total mercado", B para "share nacional", C para "demanda recurrente renovación".
Metodología 3-way
TAM Estimadores
- A · Mordor bottom-up: hogares × 0.04 × 350m² × $300 ÷ 1.2 ≈ $3,500/hh (incluye new construction)
- B · Top-down nacional: hogares_share × $41B (industry consensus 7 reports)
- C · Simple renovación: hogares × $750/hh/yr (Mordor mid-range)
SOM Estimadores
- A · cesa_pts banded: 8% si ≥5, 5% si ≥1, 3% si 0
- B · Distributor density: cesantoni_stores / total_stores en estado
- C · Production share: 4.07% nacional × bucket multiplier (cesantoni 11M m² / 270M m² nacional)
Confiabilidad:T0 · OBSERVEDT1 · OFICIALT2 · DERIVADOT3 · HEURÍSTICAT4 · APROX
Per plaza · TAM 3 estimadores + spread
| Plaza | Hogares | A · Mordor BU | B · Top-down | C · Simple $750 | Avg MDP | Spread % | SOM A/B/C | SOM spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetla de la Solidaridad | 7,307 | $7 | $16.1 | $5.5 | $9.5 | 192.7% | 4.6/1.4/2 | 229% |
| Valladolid | 23,288 | $27 | $51.4 | $17.5 | $32 | 193.7% | 3.8/0/4.1 | 8% |
| Arandas | 15,432 | $17 | $34.1 | $11.6 | $20.9 | 194.0% | 4.6/3.2/2 | 130% |
| Tulum | 13,318 | $10 | $29.4 | $10 | $16.5 | 194.0% | 9.9/15/4.1 | 266% |
| Tecate | 31,828 | $36 | $70.3 | $23.9 | $43.4 | 194.1% | 3.9/0/2 | 95% |
| Apatzingán | 33,803 | $28 | $74.7 | $25.4 | $42.7 | 194.1% | 3.3/0/4.1 | 24% |
| La Piedad | 27,304 | $22 | $60.3 | $20.5 | $34.3 | 194.1% | 3.6/0/4.1 | 14% |
| Salina Cruz | 22,624 | $18 | $50 | $17 | $28.3 | 194.1% | 3.8/2.2/4.1 | 86% |
| Apaseo el Grande | 25,022 | $20 | $55.3 | $18.8 | $31.4 | 194.1% | 5/6.9/2 | 245% |
| San Luis de la Paz | 34,214 | $33 | $75.6 | $25.7 | $44.8 | 194.2% | 3.2/6.9/4.1 | 116% |
| Atlixco | 37,012 | $33 | $81.8 | $27.8 | $47.5 | 194.2% | 3.1/3.2/2 | 60% |
| Othón P. Blanco (Chetumal) | 66,604 | $112 | $147.1 | $50 | $103 | 194.2% | 3/15/4.1 | 400% |
| Tlaxcala | 25,280 | $22 | $55.9 | $19 | $32.3 | 194.2% | 3.6/1.4/4.1 | 193% |
| San Cristóbal de las Casas | 53,410 | $43 | $118 | $40.1 | $67 | 194.3% | 3/8.7/4.1 | 190% |
| Carmen | 67,673 | $55 | $149.5 | $50.8 | $85.1 | 194.3% | 3/12.5/4.1 | 317% |
| Monclova | 65,681 | $62 | $145.1 | $49.3 | $85.5 | 194.3% | 3.6/4.3/4.1 | 19% |
| San Miguel de Allende | 46,479 | $48 | $102.7 | $34.9 | $61.9 | 194.3% | 3/6.9/2 | 245% |
| Silao | 53,287 | $52 | $117.7 | $40 | $69.9 | 194.3% | 3/6.9/4.1 | 130% |
| Navojoa | 47,011 | $49 | $103.9 | $35.3 | $62.7 | 194.3% | 3.9/5.5/2 | 175% |
| Cárdenas | 65,552 | $57 | $144.8 | $49.2 | $83.7 | 194.3% | 3/6.3/4.1 | 110% |
| Bahía de Banderas | 51,958 | $48 | $114.8 | $39 | $67.3 | 194.4% | 3/5/4.1 | 67% |
| Ciudad Victoria | 102,475 | $85 | $226.4 | $76.9 | $129.4 | 194.4% | 3/5.1/4.1 | 70% |
| Nuevo Laredo | 117,027 | $97 | $258.5 | $87.8 | $147.8 | 194.4% | 3/5.1/4.1 | 70% |
| ZM La Laguna | 343,281 | $323 | $758.4 | $257.5 | $446.3 | 194.5% | —/4.3/4.1 | 5% |
| ZM Aguascalientes | 323,941 | $331 | $715.7 | $243 | $429.9 | 194.5% | 4.4/3.7/4.1 | 19% |
| Tapachula | 87,044 | $71 | $192.3 | $65.3 | $109.5 | 194.5% | 3/8.7/4.1 | 190% |
| Mexicali | 308,124 | $342 | $680.7 | $231.1 | $417.9 | 194.5% | 3.4/0/4.1 | 21% |
| Los Cabos | 101,840 | $208 | $225 | $76.4 | $169.8 | 194.5% | 4/0/4.1 | 3% |
| La Paz | 84,764 | $150 | $187.3 | $63.6 | $133.6 | 194.5% | 4/0/4.1 | 3% |
| Campeche | 79,974 | $65 | $176.7 | $60 | $100.6 | 194.5% | 3/12.5/4.1 | 317% |
| Saltillo | 242,872 | $232 | $536.6 | $182.2 | $316.9 | 194.5% | 3.6/4.3/4.1 | 19% |
| Manzanillo | 55,332 | $48 | $122.2 | $41.5 | $70.6 | 194.5% | 3.3/8.3/4.1 | 152% |
| Zamora | 56,004 | $46 | $123.7 | $42 | $70.6 | 194.5% | 3/0/2 | 50% |
| Lázaro Cárdenas | 53,582 | $44 | $118.4 | $40.2 | $67.5 | 194.5% | 3/0/2 | 50% |
| ZM Cuernavaca | 196,911 | $166 | $435 | $147.7 | $249.6 | 194.5% | 3/2.4/6.1 | 154% |
| Morelia | 232,110 | $190 | $512.8 | $174.1 | $292.3 | 194.5% | 3/0/4.1 | 37% |
| Tepic | 117,945 | $109 | $260.6 | $88.5 | $152.7 | 194.5% | 3/5/4.1 | 67% |
| ZM San Luis Potosí | 324,652 | $269 | $717.2 | $243.5 | $409.9 | 194.5% | 3/0/6.1 | 103% |
| Tehuacán | 85,437 | $77 | $188.8 | $64.1 | $110 | 194.5% | 3/3.2/4.1 | 37% |
| San Juan del Río | 80,255 | $109 | $177.3 | $60.2 | $115.5 | 194.5% | 4/9.7/4.1 | 143% |
| Los Mochis (Ahome) | 125,417 | $112 | $277.1 | $94.1 | $161.1 | 194.5% | 3.5/3.3/4.1 | 24% |
| Mazatlán | 136,921 | $122 | $302.5 | $102.7 | $175.7 | 194.5% | 3.5/3.3/4.1 | 24% |
| Cajeme (Cd. Obregón) | 123,838 | $130 | $273.6 | $92.9 | $165.5 | 194.5% | 3.9/5.5/8.1 | 108% |
| Nogales | 75,722 | $80 | $167.3 | $56.8 | $101.4 | 194.5% | 3.9/5.5/4.1 | 41% |
| Centro (Villahermosa) | 184,238 | $158 | $407 | $138.2 | $234.4 | 194.5% | 3/6.3/4.1 | 110% |
| ZM Tijuana | 601,522 | $669 | $1328.9 | $451.1 | $816.3 | 194.6% | 3.4/0/6.1 | 79% |
| ZMVM (Valle de México) | 3,709,016 | $3342 | $8194.2 | $2781.8 | $4772.7 | 194.6% | —/0/8.1 | — |
| ZM León | 584,916 | $472 | $1292.2 | $438.7 | $734.3 | 194.6% | 3.2/6.9/4.1 | 116% |
| ZM Pachuca | 178,785 | $174 | $395 | $134.1 | $234.4 | 194.6% | 3/1.3/4.1 | 215% |
| ZM Guadalajara | 1,357,454 | $1459 | $2999 | $1018.1 | $1825.4 | 194.6% | 3.2/3.2/6.1 | 91% |
| ZM Mérida | 346,688 | $400 | $765.9 | $260 | $475.3 | 194.6% | 3/0/8.1 | 170% |
| Ensenada | 130,262 | $145 | $287.8 | $97.7 | $176.8 | 194.6% | 3.4/0/4.1 | 21% |
| ZM Toluca | 305,633 | $322 | $675.2 | $229.2 | $408.8 | 194.6% | 3/1.6/4.1 | 156% |
| Tuxtla Gutiérrez | 149,473 | $121 | $330.2 | $112.1 | $187.8 | 194.6% | 3/8.7/4.1 | 190% |
| Chihuahua | 268,121 | $238 | $592.4 | $201.1 | $343.8 | 194.6% | 3.7/7.2/6.1 | 95% |
| Juárez | 432,446 | $383 | $955.4 | $324.3 | $554.2 | 194.6% | 3.7/7.2/6.1 | 95% |
| Irapuato | 160,702 | $155 | $355 | $120.5 | $210.2 | 194.6% | 3/6.9/4.1 | 130% |
| Puerto Vallarta | 81,734 | $88 | $180.6 | $61.3 | $110 | 194.6% | 3.2/3.2/4.1 | 28% |
| ZM Monterrey | 1,017,511 | $1170 | $2248 | $763.1 | $1393.7 | 194.6% | 4.4/0/8.1 | 84% |
| ZM Puebla | 518,152 | $465 | $1144.7 | $388.6 | $666.1 | 194.6% | 3/3.2/8.1 | 170% |
| Cuautla | 51,997 | $44 | $114.9 | $39 | $66 | 194.6% | 3/2.4/4.1 | 71% |
| ZM Querétaro | 406,358 | $544 | $897.8 | $304.8 | $582.2 | 194.6% | 4/9.7/8.1 | 143% |
| ZM Cancún | 354,990 | $660 | $784.3 | $266.2 | $570.2 | 194.6% | —/15/8.1 | 85% |
| Culiacán | 274,019 | $246 | $605.4 | $205.5 | $352.3 | 194.6% | 3.5/3.3/4.1 | 24% |
| Hermosillo | 267,750 | $282 | $591.5 | $200.8 | $358.1 | 194.6% | 3.9/5.5/4.1 | 41% |
| Colima | 45,489 | $39 | $100.5 | $34.1 | $57.9 | 194.7% | 3.3/8.3/4.1 | 152% |
| Hidalgo del Parral | 32,949 | $29 | $72.8 | $24.7 | $42.2 | 194.7% | 4.2/7.2/2 | 260% |
| Durango | 185,528 | $172 | $409.9 | $139.1 | $240.3 | 194.7% | 3.1/5.6/4.1 | 81% |
| Guanajuato | 52,819 | $51 | $116.7 | $39.6 | $69.1 | 194.7% | 3/6.9/8.1 | 170% |
| Celaya | 138,726 | $134 | $306.5 | $104 | $181.5 | 194.7% | 3/6.9/4.1 | 130% |
| Uruapan | 95,363 | $78 | $210.7 | $71.5 | $120.1 | 194.7% | 3/0/4.1 | 37% |
| Juchitán | 30,430 | $23 | $67.2 | $22.8 | $37.7 | 194.7% | 3.4/2.2/4.1 | 86% |
| Ciudad Valles | 47,636 | $40 | $105.2 | $35.7 | $60.3 | 194.7% | 3/0/2 | 50% |
| Comalcalco | 57,911 | $50 | $127.9 | $43.4 | $73.8 | 194.7% | 3/6.3/4.1 | 110% |
| Piedras Negras | 48,453 | $46 | $107 | $36.3 | $63.1 | 194.8% | 3.6/4.3/4.1 | 19% |
| Tulancingo de Bravo | 43,920 | $42 | $97 | $32.9 | $57.3 | 194.8% | 3/1.3/2 | 131% |
| Apizaco | 20,428 | $18 | $45.1 | $15.3 | $26.1 | 194.8% | 3.9/1.4/2 | 179% |
| Salamanca | 74,060 | $58 | $163.6 | $55.5 | $92.4 | 194.8% | 5/6.9/2 | 245% |
| Oaxaca de Juárez | 72,599 | $55 | $160.4 | $54.4 | $89.9 | 194.9% | 3/2.2/4.1 | 86% |
| Delicias | 42,332 | $38 | $93.5 | $31.7 | $54.4 | 195.0% | 3.7/7.2/4.1 | 95% |
| Colotlán | 5,321 | $6 | $11.8 | $4 | $7.3 | 195.0% | 5/3.2/2 | 150% |
| Tuxtepec | 42,723 | $32 | $94.4 | $32 | $52.8 | 195.0% | 3/2.2/2 | 50% |
| Huatulco | 13,628 | $11 | $30.1 | $10.2 | $17.1 | 195.1% | 4.3/2.2/4.1 | 96% |
| Huamantla | 24,993 | $22 | $55.2 | $18.7 | $32 | 195.2% | 3.6/1.4/2 | 157% |
| Huajuapan de León | 20,983 | $16 | $46.4 | $15.7 | $26 | 195.5% | 4/2.2/2 | 100% |
| Ojocaliente | 10,834 | $8 | $23.9 | $8.1 | $13.3 | 198.7% | 7.3/15/4.1 | 266% |
| Iguala | 41,435 | $30 | $91.5 | $31.1 | $50.9 | 205.0% | 3/1.3/2 | 131% |
| Chalco | 106,053 | $76 | $234.3 | $79.5 | $129.9 | 208.3% | 4.3/1.6/2 | 169% |
| ZM Reynosa-Río Bravo | 227,969 | $163 | $503.6 | $171 | $279.2 | 209.0% | 3.5/5.1/4.1 | 46% |
| Pueblo Viejo | 16,780 | $12 | $37.1 | $12.6 | $20.6 | 209.2% | 6.6/2.4/2 | 230% |
| Chilpancingo de los Bravo | 77,110 | $55 | $170.4 | $57.8 | $94.4 | 209.8% | 3/1.3/2 | 131% |
| Xalapa | 137,534 | $98 | $303.8 | $103.2 | $168.3 | 210.0% | 3/2.4/4.1 | 71% |
| Poza Rica | 53,337 | $38 | $117.8 | $40 | $65.3 | 210.0% | 3/2.4/4.1 | 71% |
| Acapulco | 212,147 | $151 | $468.7 | $159.1 | $259.6 | 210.4% | 3/1.3/4.1 | 215% |
| Córdoba | 57,634 | $41 | $127.3 | $43.2 | $70.5 | 210.5% | 3/2.4/4.1 | 71% |
| ZM Matamoros | 168,768 | $120 | $372.9 | $126.6 | $206.5 | 210.8% | 3.6/5.1/4.1 | 42% |
| Pánuco | 28,200 | $20 | $62.3 | $21.1 | $34.5 | 211.5% | 6.6/2.4/2 | 230% |
| Coatzacoalcos | 87,470 | $62 | $193.2 | $65.6 | $106.9 | 211.6% | 3/2.4/4.1 | 71% |
| ZM Veracruz-Boca del Río | 211,640 | $150 | $467.6 | $158.7 | $258.8 | 211.7% | 3/2.4/4.1 | 71% |
| Jerez | 15,503 | $11 | $34.3 | $11.6 | $19 | 211.8% | 6.8/15/4.1 | 266% |
| Fresnillo | 65,099 | $46 | $143.8 | $48.8 | $79.5 | 212.6% | 3.1/15/4.1 | 384% |
| Zihuatanejo de Azueta | 34,289 | $24 | $75.8 | $25.7 | $41.8 | 215.8% | 3.3/1.3/2 | 154% |
| ZM Zacatecas-Guadalupe | 97,240 | $68 | $214.8 | $72.9 | $118.6 | 215.9% | 7.2/15/8.1 | 108% |
| Calera | 12,921 | $9 | $28.5 | $9.7 | $15.7 | 216.7% | 7.1/15/4.1 | 266% |
| Río Bravo | 35,100 | $24 | $77.5 | $26.3 | $42.6 | 222.9% | 6.9/5.1/2 | 245% |
| ZM Tampico | 252,712 | $172 | $558.3 | $189.5 | $306.6 | 224.6% | 3/5.1/4.1 | 70% |
| Jalpa | 6,043 | $4 | $13.4 | $4.5 | $7.3 | 235.0% | 7.6/15/4.1 | 266% |
| Matehuala | 28,102 | $18 | $62.1 | $21.1 | $33.7 | 245.0% | 7.4/0/2 | 270% |
| Rioverde | 25,804 | $16 | $57 | $19.4 | $30.8 | 256.3% | 7.6/0/2 | 280% |