Macro · snapshot histórico (FRED + OECD + World Bank)
Snapshot 2026-05-08. Indicadores macro relevantes para Cesantoni: tasas EUA (demanda exportación), housing OECD vs MX, GDP/FX/empleo World Bank.
FRED · Estados Unidos (relevante exportación + nearshoring)
30-yr mortgage rate at 6.37% (-0.39 pp YoY) shapes US homebuilding demand for ceramic tile imports. US Housing Starts 1502.0k SAAR, Permits 1363.0k SAAR (-7.97% YoY) — the leading indicator for tile demand 6-12 months out. USD/MXN at 17.3969 (-11.4% YoY) directly impacts Cesantoni's peso-cost vs USD-revenue margin on US export sales. US PPI ceramic tile at 134.6 (+3.7% YoY) signals competitive US producer pricing. Brent crude 118.26 USD/bbl — proxy for cross-border logistics cost. Net read: nearshoring narrative depends on US construction recovery (mortgage/permits) and a stable-to-weaker peso; tile PPI shows whether Cesantoni can hold price discipline against US producers.
OECD · México vs promedio internacional
Mexico's housing market shows a striking paradox: high homeownership (71% vs 67% OECD avg) but a structural housing deficit of ~8.2M units and one of the lowest mortgage-debt-to-GDP ratios in the OECD (11% vs 48%), signaling deep financing under-penetration. Real prices softened 1.2% YoY in 2024Q4 while OECD average rose 1.4%, yet nominal prices remain elevated (index 168 vs OECD 159, base 2015). Residential investment lags at 4.8% of GDP (OECD avg 5.6%), and relative poverty (16.6%) sits well above the OECD norm (11.4%). The combination — affordability stress, low credit access, and chronic supply deficit — frames a multi-decade build-out opportunity for residential developers and proptech serving middle-income segments such as Cesantoni's target.
World Bank · México macro 2014–2024
Macro snapshot México (2024): GDP USD $1856.4B, crecimiento 1.43% YoY. Industria pesa 31.8% del PIB — sector clave para Cesantoni (cerámica/construcción es input de manufactura + obra). Tipo de cambio promedio 18.3 MXN/USD; exportaciones mercancías USD $591.7B confirman tracción nearshoring. Tasa activa de banca 11.22% encarece crédito a desarrolladores y compradores de vivienda — headwind para obra nueva pero abre cuña para remodelación (ticket menor, sin financiamiento). Gini 42.6 muestra desigualdad persistente: estrategia de portafolio Cesantoni debe segmentar por plaza (premium en NL/CDMX vs value-tier en Bajío/Sureste). Población crece 0.86% anual, gasto gobierno 11.2% PIB. Doing Business descontinuado 2021; última lectura: México 93/190 en permisos de construcción, fricción regulatoria sigue siendo barrera para obra formal.